The Strato Value of A-ROD
By now, most of the baseball world knows of A-RODS trade to then Yankees. This
article will take a look at his current Strat-O-Matic value as a player and a
shortstop. I don’t care to discuss the trade, how it affects baseball, or
anything like that. Let’s talk STRATO!!
Currently
A-Rod is by far and away the best current shortstop in
“Strato”. His current 2003 card proves it. Hal and Company gave him the
highly desired “1” range…which means virtually any ball hit his way is a
double play with a man on first. If memory serves me correct, I believe it’s
3-20 on a 20-sided roll is a double play with a man on first. That’s amazing!!
Do you know how many jams he can get you out of??? He has good onbase, great
power, has a low “e-rating”, has a lot of extra base hits on his card, and
hit lefties and righties about the same! Toss in some steals and he’s about
the best all around shortstop this year…not to mention to ever play. Most
people in the Strato World agree with this assessment.
The question is “What do I do if I own A-ROD?”
Future Value
First
of all, if you’re fortunate enough to own A-ROD in Strato, I don’t have any
sympathy for you. He’s a STUD… a complete animal who needs a leash. He’ll
be an animal wherever park or position he plays. But since he moved to NY, we
can project what he will do with great confidence.
Moving to the hot corner is never
easy for any shortstop. The tendency of Strato is to downgrade a player’s
range from a position switch. This rightly occurs, because they are not
comfortable quite yet, and still have to learn the footwork involved. I expect
A-ROD to go from a “1” at short to a “2” at third (the hot corner). But,
“buyer beware” ….A-ROD’s errors should rack up into the mid teens
to low 20’s. This is not because he has bad hands. But more due to the new
position and the judging balls coming quickly off the grass.
Remember—“Pay-ROD” plays about 17 feet deeper then the third baseman. That
17 extra feet allows you more time to react to balls hit your way. Alex has
never had to charge an infield grounder, or field a bunt from shortstop. The
transition expects to take a toll on his error count and mental mistakes in the
field during this learning curve. Perhaps in 2005 he’ll be more accustomed to
the position and cut down on his mistakes. But… expect his errors to rise and
his range to move to a “2”.
Also, remember because Rodriguez
plays short currently, his Strato value is awesome. If you put him in right…
his value goes down because of the quality of talent at that position.
Rodriguez’s value is so high because he plays at short…a position
traditionally thin in talent. Moving to third definitely hurts his Strato value.
However, there will be days when Jeter goes on the DL…or needs some rest.
Rodriguez will be the natural fit to replace him for a few games. So, he might
still get the shortstop ranking… but don’t look for Strato to give him a
“1” range because he plays that spot for 10 games a year…I’d bank on the
“2” range at short if he plays that position.
Rodriguez
will also have much more protection in the lineup then in Texas. Giambi and
Sheffield should hit before and after his spot, so there is no pitching around
him. I look for A-Rod to get more favorable pitches thrown in his direction.
That lineup is better then “Murders Row” for the Yankees back in the old
days. He’ll see better pitches and expect him to be a little more selective.
In NY, he doesn’t have to make things happen. He can take a walk because the
guy behind him can bang one out at any time. That wouldn’t happen in Texas.
So, look for his Onbase percentage to increase.
Now you have to look at the park
he’s traveling to. Yankee Stadium is not nearly as friendly as the confines of
Texas. Arlington is the “Coors Field” of the American League… a reason why you saw A-ROD’s
homers jump from a career high of 42 homers in Seattle (a known pitchers park)
to 52 homers in Texas. New York has fairly short porches in right and left
field. Right Field is at 314’ compared to Arlingtons 325’. Left field is
334’ compared to New York’s 318’. At first glance it appears Yankee
Stadium is smaller… which it is. But the weather conditions in Arlington are
much more favorable to hitting homeruns and carrying the ball then at NY. Just
ask the fans in Colorado if weather doesn’t mean a lot!!
The proof is in the pudding. A-ROD
managed to hit .208 with a .542 slugging at Yankee Stadium in 25 at-bats.
Compare that to hitting a .314 average with a .621 slugging percentage. That is
a colossal difference. Over the last 3 years, A-ROD has managed just a .241
average at Yankee Stadium, but he did hit 6 homeruns in 54 AB’s. But at
Arlington he hit a .333 average with a .666 slugging in 3 years. It’s safe to
say his days of reaching 52 homers are history… I would expect somewhere in
the low 40’s…. unless Yankee Stadium changes their field dimensions (and we
all know that won’t happen).
Another factor to consider is the
quality of pitching in the American League East Division. With Pedro, Schilling,
and Lowe in Boston….Halladay, Batista, and Lilly in Toronto, then toss in
Zambrano in Tampa Bay and Lopez in Baltimore…the pitching is above average in
this division. This could suggest a lower batting average then in years past.
Bottom Line=
.285 batting average, 41
Homers, “2” range at third with a mid teens “e-rating”